The first quarter GDP increased by 6.1%: 70% depending on domestic demand

The first quarter GDP increased by 6.1%: 70% depending on domestic demand

Spring of well-being of economic data is often a clear sign there will be the role. Therefore, when packing the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday released a 2009 Quarterly Bulletin of China's economy, many market participants breathed a sigh of relief: Yes, the overall performance of better than expected. Confidence in your more expensive than gold. "The operation of the first quarter of positive changes in the national economy, the overall performance of better than expected."
Released yesterday in the first quarter of 2009, when macroeconomic data, the National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Li Chao said so. Which is noticeable is that from the first quarter's 6.1 percent growth in GDP structure, the consumption share of 40 percent from the previous year rose to 70%! Data confidence "between the two steady fast, narrow three-three" Although the fourth quarter compared with last year's GDP growth rate 6.8% lower, Li Chao said that the first quarter of this year's 6.1 percent growth in GDP, "should be very easy." Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of World Economics and Politics Research, deputy director of the international financial Zhang Bin also believes that by the first quarter GDP showed growth of the ring than the already very high. He pointed out, GDP data reflect the economic performance has been formed V-shaped rebound, and rebound in the strength and speed are beyond all expectations. "Only 6.1 percent year-on-year growth in the quarter, but I want to know that the first quarter of last year is the high point where the GDP." Li Chao has also affirmed that the economic emergence of the first quarter of several major positive changes, that is, the "two solid", "two-speed", "three high", the "three narrow." Two stable operation in the industrial production has stabilized and the stability of agricultural development. Industrial scale in March year-on-year increase of 8.3% in February than 1 ~ 4.5 percentage points to speed up this speed for the best since October last year; and in agriculture, grain sown area has increased 6 years, meat production in the same period last year growth of 6%. Two fast, growth in fixed asset investment and retail sales of consumer goods to speed up the total amount of real growth to accelerate. A quarter of total fixed asset investment grew 28.8 percent, and the urban and rural areas to speed up the emergence of the "double speeding up"; At the same time, the first quarter of the actual total retail sales of social consumer goods up 15.9 percent over the same period last year to speed up 3.6 percentage points over last year accelerated throughout the year by 1.1 percentage points, but also a rapid consumption growth in rural consumption growth in the city. Three high, first, financial institutions, new loans hit new single-quarter high; the second is the record high sales of passenger cars; The third is to improve the community's confidence. Sales of passenger cars in March the National 772,000, an increase of 22.4%, 26.7% growth in chain; China manufacturer Purchasing Managers Index also has four months to upgrade, and stop the "Callable Bull / Bear Contracts line" business confidence index and the National business climate index is a sign of improvement. Three narrow, export, fiscal revenue and generating capacity of the decline in March than in February-1 significantly reduced.
That worries the export data, " horse carriage" drag .
However, the first quarter of the macro data also showed China's economy will face is not a solid basis, the status of the task is still arduous. "We face very serious international situation. At home, we also face larger downward pressure on the economy." Li Chao said. Li Chao said yesterday, the first quarter of the "horse carriage" of the contribution to GDP are: final consumption accounted for 4.3 percentage points, 2.0 percentage points the stimulation of investment, leaving a negative 0.2 from negative external demand driven. Although the consumption share of GDP driven by about 40% of the previous rise to about 70%, but things need to drag more serious, in the first quarter dropped 24.9 percent of foreign trade, the actual use of foreign direct investment is also declining. Still can not be optimistic about the external environment, Lu, chief economist at Industrial Bank, political commissar of the view that a sudden contraction of aggregate demand, will allow the accumulation of enterprises were forced to play after more inventory and more capacity needs to digest. "" Warmer "premature." Rouge political commissar said that although the second quarter GDP will continue to rebound, but in the non-state sector to restore confidence, GDP growth back to potential before the level of more than 9 percent, to mention the real economy is still true "warmer" . Once the level of GDP growth below potential, the economy will continue to bear the remaining capacity to digest, spontaneous investments, such as weak and unemployment high pressure. Zhang Bin also believes that the economic rebound in the strength and growth from the basic role of government and industrial sectors, "a large part of which capacity is not required for domestic and external, in the stock after the end of digestion, a new demand and not the continuation of fiscal policy more and more constrained, the economy of its own, endogenous forces are not strong sustainable growth. " However, Zhang Bin, or that the inventory adjustment in view of the current stable phase, a more stable domestic consumption, which play a role in four trillion investment, credit and lax monetary policy and other factors, short-term upward trend of China's economy can be maintained